Thursday, July 2, 2009
Having Success in Trading - Mental aspect
Succes comes from being in the right frame of mind. Trading - you have to be in your game, using mind, methodology and management.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Monday, May 18, 2009
Time to short APOL (with puts)
It's butting up on a downtrending channel - it could rally to $68 (200dma), but it didn't move positive on a 200 pt up day today, which tells me it wants to re test the recent new lows.
Navalier says BUY, while Cintron Research says SELL...
Monday, May 11, 2009
Stocks and sectors to track - methods to utilze...
These are interesting and challenging markets - volatile and confusing. There are also many instruments and tools at your disposal. ETFs are ways to make sector bets - there are 2x and 3x volatility versions. Of course, other methods are using coverered calls for income and spreads for growth.
Here is a large list of tickers, roughly 80 in the BigWatch>
AAPL AKAM AMAG APOL BRCM CECO CELG CMG COST CREE DGIT DRIV ENER FSLR GILD GLW GOOG IMGN INTC JPM NFLX NVDA RHT RIMM SLAB SNDK SPWRA STP VMW WFR IBN INFY ACH BIDU CTRP EDU NTES SNDA ERJ MELI FLS FLR SGR MDR SQM AVAV AUY FCX KGC CCJ NRG MOS MON POT MVL DRYS BG BHP RIO VIP AMSC APA ATW CHK COG DO ESV GHM HES ITRI LDK NE NFX RIG STO SU PCZ SUN SYT TSO VLO ZOLT USO DIG DUG GLD GDX PBW SLV EEM FXI FXP EWZ TBT
and then the Biotech Watch>
ABII ACOR ALTH AMAG AMED AMGN AMLN BABY BIIB BMRN CELG CEPH CYBS CYPB EBS ENDP GENZ GERN GILD HOLX ILMN IMGN ISRG KNDL LIFE MDVN MEDX MELA MNTA MYGN ONXX OPTR OSIP PDLI SGEN SLXP SQNM TEVA THOR VIVO VPHM VRTX XNPT
Here is an attempted sort into categories>
COMMODITIES
Agriculture
MON
MOS
POT
Metals
GLD - ETF
GDX - ETF
UGL - ETF
FCX
KGC
X
AUY
Oil & Gas
DIG - ETF
DUG - ETF
USO – ETF
VLO
TSO
RIG
NE
DO
SLB
HAL
SU
PCZ
Wind
PWND
Water
FLS
Solar
STP
FSLR
SPWRA
ENER
Technology
Hardware
AAPL
RIMM
BRCM
SIGM
MLNX
MRVL
QCOM
Software/Internet
AMZN
GOOG
VMW
AKAM
BCSI
MELI
BIDU
NTES
SNDA
EDU
APOL
CTRP?
Biotech
AMAG
IMGN
OSIP
MDVN
Here is a large list of tickers, roughly 80 in the BigWatch>
AAPL AKAM AMAG APOL BRCM CECO CELG CMG COST CREE DGIT DRIV ENER FSLR GILD GLW GOOG IMGN INTC JPM NFLX NVDA RHT RIMM SLAB SNDK SPWRA STP VMW WFR IBN INFY ACH BIDU CTRP EDU NTES SNDA ERJ MELI FLS FLR SGR MDR SQM AVAV AUY FCX KGC CCJ NRG MOS MON POT MVL DRYS BG BHP RIO VIP AMSC APA ATW CHK COG DO ESV GHM HES ITRI LDK NE NFX RIG STO SU PCZ SUN SYT TSO VLO ZOLT USO DIG DUG GLD GDX PBW SLV EEM FXI FXP EWZ TBT
and then the Biotech Watch>
ABII ACOR ALTH AMAG AMED AMGN AMLN BABY BIIB BMRN CELG CEPH CYBS CYPB EBS ENDP GENZ GERN GILD HOLX ILMN IMGN ISRG KNDL LIFE MDVN MEDX MELA MNTA MYGN ONXX OPTR OSIP PDLI SGEN SLXP SQNM TEVA THOR VIVO VPHM VRTX XNPT
Here is an attempted sort into categories>
COMMODITIES
Agriculture
MON
MOS
POT
Metals
GLD - ETF
GDX - ETF
UGL - ETF
FCX
KGC
X
AUY
Oil & Gas
DIG - ETF
DUG - ETF
USO – ETF
VLO
TSO
RIG
NE
DO
SLB
HAL
SU
PCZ
Wind
PWND
Water
FLS
Solar
STP
FSLR
SPWRA
ENER
Technology
Hardware
AAPL
RIMM
BRCM
SIGM
MLNX
MRVL
QCOM
Software/Internet
AMZN
GOOG
VMW
AKAM
BCSI
MELI
BIDU
NTES
SNDA
EDU
APOL
CTRP?
Biotech
AMAG
IMGN
OSIP
MDVN
Planning for investments and trading
I'm reading a book titled "Come into my Trading Room" written by Dr. Alexander Elder. He talks about trading and investing psychologies and the critical nature to planning of mind, method and money.
A takeaway for me was the thought of fear and greed and the awareness of these feelings in the market and yourself in your trading. This also coincides with the entry in the markets as entertainment. The excitement of the trade - getting carried away with the potential for gain and disappointment of losses. It is similar to the casino and the racetrack with so many bets to make....
The key to the money aspect is managing your trades to be diversified and not enter all-in or all-out situations. This is difficult unless you really focus on it.
One of the things holding back my trading is following too many stocks and this paralyzes me from making a decision. I want to make the perfect trade and that's because I'm doing an all-in. I can't enter for fear of losing.
In my next post, I'll review the large number of stocks that I follow and narrow them down.
SK
A takeaway for me was the thought of fear and greed and the awareness of these feelings in the market and yourself in your trading. This also coincides with the entry in the markets as entertainment. The excitement of the trade - getting carried away with the potential for gain and disappointment of losses. It is similar to the casino and the racetrack with so many bets to make....
The key to the money aspect is managing your trades to be diversified and not enter all-in or all-out situations. This is difficult unless you really focus on it.
One of the things holding back my trading is following too many stocks and this paralyzes me from making a decision. I want to make the perfect trade and that's because I'm doing an all-in. I can't enter for fear of losing.
In my next post, I'll review the large number of stocks that I follow and narrow them down.
SK
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Ahead with Index Funds
http://www.gregkarp.com/blog/2009/04/22/indexes-trump-managers%e2%80%a6again/
Adding to the pile of evidence that you can’t beat the market was a Standard & Poor’s study released this week. It found that over the five-year period from 2004 to 2008, the S&P 500, a popular index for big-company stocks, beat 71.9 percent of actively managed funds, those who employ a stock-picker. That’s especially striking, considering those high-paid stock-pickers are supposed to be able to trounce the general market during a recession.
Among funds that held medium-sized company stocks, 75.9 percent lost to the index. (S&P MidCap 400). The story is even more profound among small-company stocks. The index, S&P SmallCap 600, outperformed 85.5 percent of funds that concentrate on small companies. Results were similar for the five-year period from 1999 to 2003, Standard & Poor’s said. Same story with funds that hold stocks of international companies.
“But,” you might think, “I’ll just choose a fund whose manager is in the 18 percent who beats the market.” How will you do that? Research shows that top performers one year tend to be next year’s poor performers. How will you know in advance which funds will outperform this year? You can’t know, and neither can anybody else. It says so in every financial document you read – you know, that thing about how past performance has nothing to do with future returns.
When you hire a professional and pay a premium price, as you do with actively managed funds, you’re supposed to get superior results. Otherwise, why pay more?
Why, indeed.
Adding to the pile of evidence that you can’t beat the market was a Standard & Poor’s study released this week. It found that over the five-year period from 2004 to 2008, the S&P 500, a popular index for big-company stocks, beat 71.9 percent of actively managed funds, those who employ a stock-picker. That’s especially striking, considering those high-paid stock-pickers are supposed to be able to trounce the general market during a recession.
Among funds that held medium-sized company stocks, 75.9 percent lost to the index. (S&P MidCap 400). The story is even more profound among small-company stocks. The index, S&P SmallCap 600, outperformed 85.5 percent of funds that concentrate on small companies. Results were similar for the five-year period from 1999 to 2003, Standard & Poor’s said. Same story with funds that hold stocks of international companies.
“But,” you might think, “I’ll just choose a fund whose manager is in the 18 percent who beats the market.” How will you do that? Research shows that top performers one year tend to be next year’s poor performers. How will you know in advance which funds will outperform this year? You can’t know, and neither can anybody else. It says so in every financial document you read – you know, that thing about how past performance has nothing to do with future returns.
When you hire a professional and pay a premium price, as you do with actively managed funds, you’re supposed to get superior results. Otherwise, why pay more?
Why, indeed.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Tracking Short List 2/10/09
With thoughts of a prolonged recession and increased savings rate from consumers, it means upscale spending should continue to be down even as the economy improves.
This should affect Saks (SKS) and Tiffany's (TIF) and WFMI and Nordstrom's. It is also reported that casino business was down in December. That should affect LVS, MGM, WYNN, BYD.
I haven't had a chance to review these stocks or add more. Just noting it with plan to review soon for action.
This should affect Saks (SKS) and Tiffany's (TIF) and WFMI and Nordstrom's. It is also reported that casino business was down in December. That should affect LVS, MGM, WYNN, BYD.
I haven't had a chance to review these stocks or add more. Just noting it with plan to review soon for action.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Trade: PALM short 2-3-09
Palm closed at 7.47 today and the MACD has crossed on the daily chart. By mid-January, the stock had flown high on the PRE news up to 8.39. It's based since then, which is actually positive as the markets have fallen.
There is still strength in Palm's move but moving from $1 to $8 in 6 weeks suggests a pullback. RSI crossing back under 70 suggests the time is imminent. There is a gap from 4.5 up to 5.25. First test will be to 6.5, then possibly 5.25. It will likely take longer to retest to 4.5.
Michael Shulman suggests that>
A cult stock that recently skyrocketed and attracted a lot of sucker money is Palm (PALM). The pioneer of the PDA, this company has been killed by the Research In Motion (RIMM) BlackBerry and the Apple (AAPL) iPhone. And the new Palm Pre is not going to change anything. The stock has climbed off a bottom of $1.80 to around $7, in part due to massive short covering. The company is a dead man walking, regardless of its new tinker toy. Do you really think this cash-poor outfit can go head to head with Apple and RIMM? Don't be a sucker.
Ignore those people pounding the table saying these three stocks are cheap. KB Home, Ruby Tuesday and Palm have further to fall. Avoid these names or, even better, short them by purchasing puts options.
There is still strength in Palm's move but moving from $1 to $8 in 6 weeks suggests a pullback. RSI crossing back under 70 suggests the time is imminent. There is a gap from 4.5 up to 5.25. First test will be to 6.5, then possibly 5.25. It will likely take longer to retest to 4.5.
Michael Shulman suggests that>
A cult stock that recently skyrocketed and attracted a lot of sucker money is Palm (PALM). The pioneer of the PDA, this company has been killed by the Research In Motion (RIMM) BlackBerry and the Apple (AAPL) iPhone. And the new Palm Pre is not going to change anything. The stock has climbed off a bottom of $1.80 to around $7, in part due to massive short covering. The company is a dead man walking, regardless of its new tinker toy. Do you really think this cash-poor outfit can go head to head with Apple and RIMM? Don't be a sucker.
Ignore those people pounding the table saying these three stocks are cheap. KB Home, Ruby Tuesday and Palm have further to fall. Avoid these names or, even better, short them by purchasing puts options.
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